Pancreatic surgery is associated with a high risk for postoperative complications and death of patients. Complications occur in a variable interval after the procedure. Often, a patient has already left the ICU and is not properly monitored anymore when the complication occurs. Risk stratification models can assist in identifying patients at risk in order to keep these patients in ICU for longer. This, in turn, helps to identify complications earlier and increase survival rates. We trained multiple machine learning models on pre-, intra- and short term postoperative data from patients who underwent pancreatic resection at the Department of Surgery, Campus Charité Mitte | Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin. The presented models achieve an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of up to 0.51 for predicting patient death and 0.53 for predicting a specific major complication. Overall, we found that a classical logistic regression model performs best for the investigated classification tasks. As more patient data becomes available throughout the perioperative stay, the performance of the risk stratification model improves and should therefore repeatedly be computed.
Authors are Bjarne Pfitzner, Jonas Chromik, Rachel Brabender, Eric Fischer, Alexander Kromer, Axel Winter, Simon Moosburner, Igor M. Sauer, Thomas Malinka, Johann Pratschke, Bert Arnrich, and Max M. Maurer.
Annu Int Conf IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc. 2021 Nov;2021:2211-2214. doi: 10.1109/EMBC46164.2021.9630897.